Ok, we get this question all the time, this time I got it throught an email. I asked if I could post it on the blog and then answer it. He said I could.
It’s from Joe S.
“Hope all is well and keep up the great reporting! Have a question though, who makes your poll up? You have Paramus High School ranked higher then Bergen Catholic? Do you really honestly think if those two teams played a game PHS, not PC, but PHS is favored? BC is ranked # 7 in the North East in PrepNation yet ranked # 8 in NORTH Jersey??? Is this just to appease the public schools? We all know the Big North United Teams would crush those others 9 out of 10 times, I was just curious as to how that is figured out? Thank Youâ€
And now the answer….
First of all, it’s not a dumb question by any means, like I said we get this a lot.
Last year, we had a change in the way we put together the North Jersey Top 25, largely sparked by the same reasoning that Joe S. asked about. The poll had been put together by one individual Varsity Ace (Keith Idec) with input from the other writers on staff. But there were some disagreements on just how teams should be ranked.
And believe me, there are lots of different philosophies, what Joe S. is talking about is a common one. If Team A can beat Team B, then Team A should always be ranked higher than Team B. Other people feel like any unbeaten team should be ranked ahead of a team with a loss. Like a 9-0 Wallington team should be ranked ahead of a 8-1 Ridgewood team, even though they play in different groups etc.
So, to properly blend all of these poll thoughts, we decided to follow the AP (Associated Press) model for the North Jersey Top 25. Each one of the six football writers for The Record/Herald-News (a.k.a. Varsity Aces – remember, we are the same thing) gets a vote. We give 25 points to our number 1 team, 24 for number 2, 23 for number 3. The numbers are all added up, the team with the most points is number 1, second most is number two, you get the drift.
This way you kind of meld all of the different philosophies on polls together. We have all done polls in different sports and I know we all see them a little differently. By the way, this year, the 6 are, myself, Mark Czerwinski, Keith Idec, Jim McConville, Ed Mills and JJ Conrad.
Personally, and this is just me talking, I have always seen the weekly poll as my best guess as to how the final poll would look, because really, in the end, the last poll in December is the one that matters the most. So it’s like I am taking all of the information to that point and using it to forecast how the final poll will look.
Now, with regard to Joe S. question, the poll (to me) is not about if Team A beat Team B. If Bergen Catholic played Paramus, would Bergen Catholic win? Probably. But the poll is also based on what a team’s expectations and history have been, and also factoring in their opponents. Let me cite the current AP college poll for example. I’ll pick on Notre Dame, why not? The Fighting Irish are 8th in the AP poll, my alma mater, LSU is 18th. On a neutral field, or hey, let’s say in Baton Rouge, do you think LSU would be favored to beat Notre Dame? I would say so (even though LSU’s quarterbacks are terrible). So by that logic, LSU should be ranked ahead of Notre Dame, right?
But they aren’t, and they shouldnt be. Notre Dame is 3-0, LSU just got stomped by Mississippi State. I would say that LSU has not reached the expectations set for them, while Notre Dame – to this point – has surpassed them.
Another example, if LSU loses again, let’s say to Texas A&M or something, they’ll drop out of the poll. Wisconsin, if they keep winning, will stay in. But LSU beat Wisconsin on a neutral field, no less. If you subscribe to that Team A would beat Team B theory….just how far are you willing to take it? That’s what I always thought was the flaw with it.
What makes high school polls so difficult is that you have such a wide disparity in size and sheer overall class of player. Is there any Group 1 team in North Jersey that could compete with any of the Big North United teams? No. But if Cresskill goes 12-0 and wins North 1, Group 1, to me, they deserve to be rewarded by going up higher in our poll than a 3-6 Big North United team.
We are not doing it to appease the public school teams, or anybody else. Instead of looking at it as team A beating team B, see the number next to the name as a reflection of how good of a season a team is having through three weeks.
I really appreciated the question. I’ve wondered if I should reveal my weekly ballot every week, because I know it’s not the same as the final poll that gets printed and maybe people would be curious. Personally, I actually did have Bergen Catholic 8th in my poll and Paramus 12th, because based on results and my own eyes, that’s where I think they belong.